विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 05.02.2025

05.02.2025 11:31 AM

U.S. Federal Reserve Policymakers Sharply Shift Their Stance

Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated yesterday that the U.S. economy is in good shape, and the central bank does not need to respond quickly to the new policies introduced by the Trump administration.

Daly noted that current economic indicators, such as the unemployment rate and steady GDP growth, point to a healthy state of the country's financial system. She emphasized that the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor the situation and remain ready to adapt to changing conditions, but rushing to adjust monetary policy is not advisable. Additionally, she highlighted the need to consider the potential long-term consequences of the tax reform proposed by the Trump administration, including its impact on inflation and consumer spending. Supporting consumers and businesses remains a key priority, and the Fed aims to create conditions for sustainable economic growth.

"There's a lot of uncertainty," Daly said on Tuesday during a panel discussion organized by the Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California. But she added: "We can take our time and see what happens, both in the economy and in politics."

Daly believes that preemptive action is no longer necessary, signaling a softer approach to interest rates than previously anticipated. The San Francisco Fed President also stated that the work to bring inflation back to 2% is not yet complete, and she is dedicating 100% of her energy to addressing this challenge.

It's worth noting that Daly and other Fed officials are currently facing extraordinary uncertainty regarding the future policies the Trump administration may pursue concerning tariffs, immigration, taxation, and regulation, all of which could impact the U.S. economy. Daly also stressed the importance of understanding the net effect of new policies, including their scope, magnitude, and timing, which remain unclear.

"If you take preemptive measures by looking at these factors in isolation, you might make a policy mistake," she said.

Trump's Tariffs and Market Reaction

On Monday, President Donald Trump announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but by Tuesday, he had reached agreements with both governments to delay their implementation by at least a month. However, a 10% tariff on Chinese goods took effect at midnight, prompting a series of retaliatory measures from Beijing.

This has had a positive impact on risk assets, leading to the strengthening of the euro and British pound, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar. However, it remains difficult to predict how long investor optimism toward the euro and pound will last. Any unexpected actions from Trump could quickly restore pressure on risk assets.

Technical Outlook

EUR/USD:Buyers now need to focus on breaking through the 1.0395 level. Only this will pave the way for a test of 1.0430. From there, the pair could climb to 1.0465, but doing so without the support of major players will be challenging. The ultimate target would be the 1.0495 high. In case of a decline, significant buying activity is expected around 1.0360. If no support materializes at that level, it would be wise to wait for a retest of the 1.0320 low or to open long positions from 1.0280.

GBP/USD:Pound buyers need to capture the nearest resistance at 1.2520. Only this will allow for a move toward 1.2570, above which it will be difficult to break. The ultimate target would be 1.2600, after which a sharper rally toward 1.2630 could be expected. If the pair declines, the bears will attempt to regain control at 1.2450. A successful break of this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD down to 1.2415, with the potential to reach 1.2380.

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