empty
11.04.2025 12:47 AM
The Euro Charges Ahead. Opponents Retreat

A rally in European stock indices, slowing U.S. inflation, and the fact that the average U.S. tariff has not changed significantly despite the 90-day deferral all contributed to the rise of EUR/USD. The main currency pair seems ready to restore its bullish trend and appears unconcerned about the slowdown in the German economy or the European Central Bank's upcoming deposit rate cut.

The impressive surge in the EuroStoxx 600 echoed the record-breaking rally of the S&P 500 — the strongest since 2008. Donald Trump's decision to introduce a tariff deferral encouraged investors on both sides of the Atlantic. According to the U.S. administration, about 70 countries are ready for negotiations, and 15 have already submitted concrete proposals. Capital inflows into the Eurozone have been one of the key drivers of the EUR/USD rally in 2025. It's no surprise that bulls enthusiastically welcomed the rise in European equities.

EuroStoxx 600 Performance

This image is no longer relevant

The slowdown in U.S. consumer prices added fuel to the dollar selloff against major global currencies. In March, the monthly core inflation rate fell to 0.1%—the lowest level in the past nine months. The figure rose by 2.8% yearly, marking the slowest pace in four years.

The final CPI figures suggest that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—is also likely to decelerate in March. This could lead to a potential federal funds rate cut in the coming months and deal a blow to EUR/USD bears.

U.S. Inflation Trends

This image is no longer relevant

Moreover, recession risks in the U.S. economy haven't disappeared. Markets tend to react first and analyze later. Investors heard the word "deferral" from the White House but ignored that the universal 10% tariff remains in effect, and the rate on Chinese imports has increased to 125%. As a result, the average tariff rate has barely changed — falling only slightly from 27% to 24%. This is the highest level since the early 1900s and negatively impacts the global and U.S. economies.

This image is no longer relevant

The euro also gained support from the European Union's decision to delay the tariffs it had planned as retaliation for the U.S. 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Is Brussels happy about the drop in tariffs from 20% to 10%? That final 10% remains in place and is expected to weigh heavily on the eurozone economy. According to German research institutes, Germany's GDP is expected to grow by just 0.1% in 2025. Nevertheless, the lesser one is often chosen when faced with two evils.

Technically, on the daily chart, EUR/USD attempts to restore its upward trend. Long positions initiated from 1.097 and added to the move above 1.105 should be held. Target levels for the long side remain at 1.13 and 1.16.

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

A China ajudou o dólar a interromper sua queda

O relatório da CFTC divulgado na sexta-feira mostrou alterações mínimas no posicionamento cambial geral. A posição líquida do dólar frente às principais moedas recuou de forma marginal, passando de –US$

Kuvat Raharjo 14:12 2025-05-13 UTC+2

O Bitcoin concluiu sua tarefa mínima

O Bitcoin ultrapassou a marca de 100.000, entrou em uma fase de consolidação e confirmou o padrão familiar. Anteriormente, após ultrapassar níveis psicologicamente importantes, a criptomoeda passava por um período

Marek Petkovich 14:03 2025-05-13 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Previsão semanal. Prepare-se para a turbulência de preços

A próxima semana promete alta volatilidade para todos os pares envolvendo o dólar. Os mercados estarão atentos aos desdobramentos da reunião em Genebra entre representantes dos EUA e da China

Irina Manzenko 22:47 2025-05-12 UTC+2

EUR/USD - Visão Geral - 12 de maio: O sucesso do dólar é instável

O par EUR/USD registrou uma leve alta na sexta-feira, mas, no geral, vem apresentando uma tendência de queda gradual nas últimas semanas. O movimento tem sido tão lento que recentemente

Paolo Greco 19:41 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 12 de maio? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Não há eventos macroeconômicos programados para esta segunda-feira, e os desenvolvimentos fundamentais também serão limitados. No entanto, neste momento, não está completamente claro quais fatores estão influenciando a formação

Paolo Greco 17:05 2025-05-12 UTC+2

O bom senso prevaleceu? (Alta probabilidade de crescimento do #SPX e queda nos preços do ouro)

Na segunda-feira, os Estados Unidos anunciaram "avanços significativos" nas negociações comerciais com a China, após uma reunião de dois dias realizada na Suíça no fim de semana. Os mercados reagiram

Pati Gani 16:28 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Dólar americano. Prévia semanal

O calendário econômico dos EUA para a próxima semana não será sobrecarregado com dados. Se deixarmos de lado os relatórios secundários, restará apenas o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC)

Chin Zhao 15:52 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Libra esterlina. Prévia semanal

A estrutura de ondas da libra e o interesse do mercado pelas notícias atualmente refletem o comportamento observado no euro. Na semana passada, o mercado teve a oportunidade de reduzir

Chin Zhao 15:44 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Euro. Prévia semanal

O cenário de notícais terá alguma relevância real na próxima semana? Na minha opinião, o mercado parece amplamente desinteressado por dados econômicos e fundamentos. Veja bem: eventos de grande importância

Chin Zhao 15:30 2025-05-12 UTC+2

O mercado terá que encarar a realidade

O cenário dos mercados financeiros mudam com muita rapidez Pouco antes do Dia da Libertação nos Estados Unidos, a tarifa universal de importação de 10% era vista como um desastre

Marek Petkovich 14:59 2025-05-12 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.